Free Agency 2o1o has been the topic of many NBA conversations for two full seasons. A free agency period that features LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Joe Johnson, Chris Bosh, Amar'e Stoudemire, David Lee, Carlos Boozer, and Dirk Nowitzki promises to be the biggest splash, or the biggest letdown in free agent history.
For the biggest name of the summer, LeBron James, the winds are blowing towards Chicago. Every move made this offseason is based off where James will end up. The only teams that are rumored to have a legitimate shot at the two time reigning MVP are the Bulls, Knicks (though many doubt that, including me), and the Heat.
For James the appeal of Chicago is obvious. Play in Michael Jordan's city, play in Michael's house, play for one of the most storied franchises in league history, and get his big market team which so many seem to put an emphasis on. It has been widely speculated that James is scared to play in Jordan's shadow in fear that he will be engulfed and lost in the depths of history. However word from LeBron's camp claims that he would be excited to try and create his own legacy. The only possible deal-breaker with the Bulls is that LeBron will not be able to do what he wants or be a player-coach-GM like he is in Cleveland. Let's be honest, Mike Brown was in the suit but LeBron was running that team. I wouldn't be surprised to find out that LeBron made Brown fetch him Gatorade during practice. In Chicago LeBron would be strictly a player and he would be treated as such. That's the best thing for him, it just depends on how big his ego is.
Going to Miami would unite him with the Eastern Conference's other main superstar Dwyane Wade. To me this is more of a fairy tale scenario and the least likely outcome. Is LeBron really willing to share his stardom with another megastar who is arguably better than him in many regards? I highly doubt it. In Chicago he would be playing alongside Derrick Rose who's unselfish nature would help the relationship. In New York LeBron would be nothing short of Jesus Christ Himself, in popularity at least.
Staying in Cleveland would certainly increase my respect for him but I really think Chicago is sitting pretty in the LeBron James sweepstakes.
Once LeBron is off the market all eyes will be on Wade, assuming that LeBron doesn't go to Miami. Wade is also rumored to Chicago. This next piece of evidence is the most interesting. Someone in Air Jordan's shoe division leaked what Wade's next shoe will be, and it bodes well for the Bulls. The shoe's name is "W3lcome Home" and it has Bulls colors. To the surprise of no one, the rumor mill was spinning fast once this information dropped. The other reason to believe Wade-to-Chicago is a possibility is because last summer he sold his house in Miami and bought another one in Chicago. He already has a house for his mother. Why get another one?
Despite the rumors of what his new shoe foreshadows, there is plenty of evidence to support the theory that Wade is headed back to Miami. "Do I want to leave? Nope. Mmm-hmm. I want to be in Miami." That pretty much defines where his heart is. Clearly he's only going to leave Miami if the front office, otherwise known as Pat Riley, disappoints him again. At the end of the day I think Wade is going to stay in Miami.
Chris Bosh, I'm beginning to sound like a broken record, is also heavily rumored to the Bulls. The dream off-season for the Bulls is landing LeBron James through a routine signing, then pulling off a sign and trade for Bosh. That trade would send Luol Deng and his mammoth of a contract to Toronto which clears up the salary cap space to have both Bosh and LeBron. If he doesn't go to the Bulls there are four other locations that Bosh has indicated interest in. They are New York, Los Angeles, Miami, or going back to Toronto which I just can't see happening. After Chicago, I think Miami is calling his name. The opportunity to play with Wade is something that he just can't pass up, if he does then winning is clearly not his top priority. He and Wade would fit well based on their styles of play and I really can't think of any reason why it couldn't work.
Joe Johnson's stock fell drastically this season. He suffers from something I like to call the Ben Gordon syndrome. That is when a player massively overrates his value and rejects an extension only to be forced to sign a worse deal the following offseason. It happens all of the time and Johnson is the latest case of the illness. My guess is that he ends up in New York because that's what happens to the Knicks. They get good players on the decline of their careers, get nothing out of them and go nowhere. Do Stephon Marbury, Steve Francis, or Penny Hardaway ring a bell? Next in that line of disaster stories is Joe Johnson.
Some people were surprised when Dirk Nowitzki decided to opt out of his last year with the Mavs and test the free agency market. This one is easy to predict, there is no way in hell Mark Cuban lets Dirk leave Dallas. He's the best player in franchise history and his number is destined for the rafters. In situations like that the player usually stays with the franchise and sometimes it works out (Paul Pierce).
Carlos Boozer's free agency stock raised big time this season. Everyone knows he can play but the issue was always his durability. Boozer played in 95% of the games this season which means more dollar signs for the 28 year old, double double machine. Like Bosh, Boozer has an equal chance of landing in Miami. Last summer Boozer turned some Utah fans against him when he characterized Miami as his, "paradise." There is little doubt that if he's given the chance he will end up with the Heat. If he does end up in Miami, it's safe to say the Heat missed out on Bosh and Amar'e Stoudemire. Boozer is third in line behind those two.
After the all star break Amar'e Stoudemire played better than any big man in the league and guaranteed himself a pretty nice contract this summer. I don't think he'll get a max deal unless he goes to the Knicks because no good team is going to pay that type of money for that many years on a guy they can't depend on. Stoudemire is yet another big man rumored to Miami. It seems that no matter what happens the Heat are going to be getting a great big man.
David Lee is by far the most uninteresting and least talented major free agent this summer. It's not a knock on him, it just speaks to how strong this free agent class is. My guess is that he's going to stay in New York. Lee is a talented big man but he's nowhere near good enough to make any demands at this stage in his career. If he's smart he will try to go somewhere with a future, namely anywhere other than New York or New Jersey.
Finally, this is how I see the probabilities of each player.
LeBron James: Chicago Bulls 45%, Cleveland Cavaliers 25%, Miami Heat 15%, New York Knicks 15%
Dwyane Wade: Miami Heat 85%, Chicago Bulls 15%
Chris Bosh: Chicago Bulls 37%, Miami Heat 36%, New York Knicks 14%, Toronto Raptors 13%
Joe Johnson: New York Knicks 30%, Atlanta Hawks 24%, Chicago Bulls 23%, Miami Heat 23%
Carlos Boozer: Miami Heat 50%, Utah Jazz 25%, Chicago Bulls 20%, New York Knicks 5%
Dirk Nowitzki: Dallas Mavericks 100%
Amar'e Stoudemire: Phoenix Suns 47% , Miami Heat 33%, Chicago Bulls 20%
David Lee: New York Knicks 80%, Dallas Mavericks 12% , Chicago Bulls 8%
